24 March 2010

Platooning Defense

from Atlanta Journal-Constitution

When I say the word "platoon" in reference to baseball, what comes to mind? You probably think of two players that are good enough to be in the majors but not good enough to start every day. They also have the coincidence of hitting on opposite sides of the plate, one on the left and the other on the right. The lefty bashes righties (or at least hits well ... or at least better than the righty does against righties), and the righty bashes lefties (or ... you get the point). They also share the same position. Therefore, the lefty plays when a righty is on the mound, and the righty plays when a lefty is on the mound. Simple, right? And pretty much every team uses it. But I wonder why no one thinks about platoon situations in regard to the guy on the mound for your team.


Let's use an example. You're the Seattle Mariners, and you have two fringe guys playing first in Ryan Garko and Casey Kotchman. Garko is right-handed and hits LHP (.313/.392/.495) much better than RHP (.266/.335/.420). Kotchman is left-handed and hits RHP (.267/.337/.414) a bit better than LHP (.277/.314/.378), but regardless of the lack of a massive split, he isn't good enough with the stick to warrant an everyday job if he has a right-handed caddy, especially one like Garko. Neither is being used effectively if they are playing every day. Using a traditional platoon arrangement, Kotchman would play against RHP, and Garko would start against LHP. But why is only the handedness of the other pitcher taken into consideration when making out a starting lineup? Why not take your pitcher into consideration?

Here's what I mean. Kotchman (around a +8 UZR) is a significantly better first baseman than Garko (around a -6 UZR). So when Felix Hernandez (2.17 career GB/FB) is on the mound, why not have Kotchman start regardless? There will be more groundballs, and thus, Kotchman has a better chance to make an impact with his glove while Garko would be more of a liability. Then, when Cliff Lee (0.89 career GB/FB) pitches, you can feel free to use whichever first baseman has the better matchup against the other team's pitcher because the impact that either first baseman can make has gone down significantly. In the outfield, the situation would be reversed. You would put the better defender out there for Lee (Langerhans -- +17.6 UZR in LF) and not worry with Hernandez (Bradley -- -0.1 UZR in LF, though +6.9 in RF).

The increased defense would then offset the decreased offense in the same way that, in the traditional platoon arrangement, the increased offense offsets the decrease in defense. Right? Of course, I don't really have the math to prove it, but my math skills are limited (though I have a new book to try to rectify that). But my point isn't necessarily to prove that the defensive arrangement is more important than the offensive. It may not be. The offensive player could hit a home run, making a huge impact on the game, while the defensive player may allow one more base. Granted, that's not always going to happen, and that's not the true difference in value. The offensive platoon doesn't always result in another home run every game. It's much smaller than that, and it seems reasonable, to me, that the defensive switch could make as big of a difference.

But again, that's not my point. My point is how we look at the game. Although we've made these great strides in measuring defensive value, we still look at the game from an offensive standpoint. Why would we switch the lineup? Because it helps our offense. Do we think about helping our defense in the same way?

And why do we think that way? In my opinion, it's because we've always valued offense more than defense, and still do. Historical teams couldn't quantify defense, but they could quantify offense. You could see the difference in having a better hitter in the lineup. But it's much harder to see the change in defense. It's like trying to prove a negative. How do you know that guy would have made that play that the other guy couldn't? It's almost impossible to compare. That idea has, then, funneled through the ages, slowly creeping into our subconscious as givens. What's more is that platooning has been proven to be an effective tactic because the research shows the splits. People have begun to crash through the "givens" that are easily visible -- batting average, ERA, etc., and they've done a wonderful job. But we're not done. We have to continue asking questions and questioning assumptions. Things like this still exist in baseball. I'm okay if I'm proven wrong and that offense, in this situation, is more important than defense, but I'd feel horrible if no one went through the trouble to find out.

5 comments:

  1. Because all the fancy sabermetrics still don't accurately portray what really happens on the field. They're good, but they still are as good as observational analysis.

    With a flyball pitcher, that means more balls hit to the outfield. Duh. More long singles, doubles, and triples, and lots of runners moving around the bases.

    Does Garko do the cut off well?
    Does he get to the right position?
    Does he make the turn to home quickly enough? Does he trail or block the runner well enough to keep him from getting the extra base?
    Does he decoy the batter rounding 1st well enough to hold him?
    Does he have the field vision to cut the ball and get a runner at 3rd?

    Does Kotchman do any of those things well?

    For some reason, most people think the firstbase man isn't an athlete, and stands around and doesn't do anything at all. That's true for some guys, like Thome, HOward, and Fielder, etc.

    But the reason guys like Pujols, Hernandez and others were great firstbasemen is because they did all those things well that are included in the numbers.

    You know, that dirty work, intangibles!

    It's an interesting idea, and could be used with corner outfielders and middle infieldes with a left or right handed pitcher going.

    Unless, or until, that can be quantified, go wiht the guys that gives the best overall chance to win.

    ReplyDelete
  2. "You know, that dirty work, intangibles!"

    should be dirty word

    "but they still are as good as observational analysis."

    still aren't as good

    ReplyDelete
  3. You have a few fair points regarding defensive analysis. It's not perfect. It does, however, count the things -- groundballs, flyballs, handling the ball, arm -- that happen more often than the rare occurrences you speak of. In order to be completely fair, newer statistics will need to consider these things more.

    As for first baseman, I wasn't trying to pick on them. It was just an example to demonstrate my point. Regardless, first baseman are excellent athletes. To make it to a professional level in sports, one has to have athletic talents, but first baseman are the least athletic guys on the field. Maybe that plays into perception too much.

    As for observational analysis, let me pose this question. One cannot watch every game in a baseball season. It's not possible (at least to watch them all in a meaningful way). But let's say you could watch all the Royals games this season. You would know who could do what well, and chances are, you would be fairly correct. But how could you properly compare those players to other players? You would know (just for a theoretical example) that Alex Gordon is a good hitter and fielder. You could say he does a pretty good job at your "intangibles". Now, compare him to Evan Longoria. You see him a couple times, but those few times can severely bias your opinion of him. He may suck against the Royals. He may be great. He may be a shade in between. But it won't necessarily give you the best picture of who is the better player.

    Look, I won't bash observation. It is important. But you have to be careful how you use it, just as you have to be careful with statistics. When I compare players using WAR, I don't take the number for granted. If they are within .3 points of each other or so, I will dig deeper to see what else is there, and I could give extra credit to a guy that I know does some little things well.

    As for which is better, I'd side with statistics. They take out a lot of bias and have more objective measurements (not all; it's always funny how people say that stats aren't biased, but because they are created by inherently biased humans, aren't stats also inherently biased in some manner?), and people are definitely not unbiased.

    ReplyDelete
  4. I like this idea, but I think it that has a lot of potential to become abused; that is to say, if defense is considered more valuable than offense, then it is overvalued.

    Concerning the stats versus observation argument, I would suggest that stats and observations should always be given together. That being said, I still believe that using only stats is probably more reliable than using only scouting reports to evaluate a player. (Not that anyone actually chooses explicitly between the two...)


    Also, there is probably enough footage available that one could see every groundball hit to Gordon over the course of a season, every chance he gets to act as cutoff, ect and also see each of those instances for Longoria. But I think that anyone who does that without getting paid for it should probably look into getting a life...

    And as an aside, I really like how versatile the Mariners are this season, but I think Griffey will be stealing away PAs that could be used for the kind of platooning you suggested.

    ReplyDelete
  5. I definitely agree on the Griffey point. If they like the chemistry he provides, make him a coach of some sort. Left needs (needed) to be between Saunders and Byrnes with Bradley at DH and a platoon of Kotchman and Garko at 1B.

    ReplyDelete